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Six major trends highlight 2019 new energy battery industry
In the past 2018, for the new energy battery industry, "this is a good era of Zui, but also a bad era of Zui."
In 2018, it was "new energy vehicle outbreak", "the rise of new power generation", "scaled down of power battery", "high-nickel 811 material battery mass production", "China hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry development", "China Power Grid" Side energy storage development and other "first year", but also the "cold winter" of these industries.
2019, which has already started, for the new energy battery industry, "survival or destruction, this is a problem worthy of consideration in the industry chain of the whole industry."
In 2019, the benefits brought by the policy subsidy dividend will soon be exhausted, and the new energy automobile industry will face a critical period in the market. The industrial chain enterprises will begin to face the market-oriented life and death test. In general, in 2019, the six major trends in the new energy battery industry will be more prominent: first, domestic competition in international competition, international competition in domestic competition; second, strong and strong, oligarchy; third, resource disputes, long-term improvement; The fourth is to retreat the smoke, the market competition is open; the fifth is to upgrade the charging pile to the charging network, and open a new round of “staking the horse”; sixth, the urgency of battery recycling and ladder utilization is increasing.
1. Internationalization of international competition and internationalization of domestic competition
As the largest automobile country in the world for 10 consecutive years, China's new energy vehicle production ranked first in the world for the fourth consecutive year, and its holdings exceeded the global 50% to 2.61 million units. Both increased by 500,000 units. For any multinational company in the new energy battery industry chain, the Chinese market is undoubtedly an attractive “extra big cake”.
It is undisputed that in 2019 and even in the future, China will remain the main battlefield for global new energy battery industry competition. The trend of “internationalization of international competition and internationalization of domestic competition” will become increasingly obvious.
According to the website of the Ministry of Finance, since January 1, 2019, the provisional tax rate for the import of lithium-ion battery cells for new energy vehicles has been abolished, and the tax rate of Zui Huiguo has been resumed. From the import of new energy vehicle power battery cells and systems, respectively, the 8% and 10% import provisional tax rate was restored to 12% Zui Huiguo tax rate. In other words, imported batteries are discouraged, but foreign companies are encouraged to build batteries in China. After relaxing restrictions, foreign companies such as Panasonic, South Korea's LG Chemical, and Samsung SDI have announced plans to increase their battery capacity in China.
In addition, at the beginning of the new year, China’s new energy vehicle sector opened its first foreign-owned project. The Tesla Shanghai plant was started last week. The signal released by the government is “China welcomes companies from all over the world to invest in China. Xingye, sharing the development opportunities of the Chinese auto market."
More exciting news is that, according to Reuters, global automakers plan to spend $300 billion on electric vehicle technology in the next five to 10 years, with German car companies spending $139.5 billion in addition to investing in the country. Except for the 71.7 billion US dollars, the rest are invested in China. In addition, the United States, Japan, France, and Swedish car companies have also focused their investment on China, so that China will absorb more than 45% of the relevant expenses of global car companies, reaching $135.7 billion (including China's own $57 billion). As a result, the automotive industry is accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to the Asian battery and electric vehicle technology suppliers.
The market is increasingly open. In this context, Chinese companies will face more severe market competition and will usher in better development opportunities. The further expansion of reform and opening up will give priority to high-quality enterprises, promote high-end and low-end upgrades with high-end, and jointly develop towards high quality. This will be the main theme of the long-term development of the new energy battery industry.
The Chinese battery companies represented by Ningde era and BYD have also extended their pace of expansion to overseas. In Ningde era, they announced the establishment of a power battery factory in Germany in 2018. BYD also announced that it is currently inspecting Germany and the United Kingdom, and plans to set up in Europe. Power battery factory. At the same time, from new energy vehicles, power batteries to battery materials and equipment, more and more domestic companies have begun to enter the international supply chain, accelerating the internationalization of docking. With the acceleration of localization processes such as Tesla, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and Panasonic, domestic suppliers have more opportunities to break into their supply chains due to cost considerations.
Second, the strong and strong, oligarchy
The Chinese market has become the “land of competition for the military” in the layout of the global new energy industry, and the industrial competition pattern will change accordingly. In 2019, whether it is the international market or the domestic market, the pattern of “strong and strong, oligarchy” will become more clear.
In the international market, the three countries of China, Japan and Korea have long-term stability. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Panasonic and Ningde have their own advantages and their leading position is stable. In addition, BYD has won the global new energy vehicle sales champion for four consecutive years in 2015-2018. With the opening of its battery business, BYD is also expected to grow into an international power battery giant.
In the domestic market, Ningde era and BYD have long occupied the first place in the domestic power battery installed capacity, and their total market share is over 60%, while the top 10 domestic power battery installed capacity accounts for more than 80% market share. And with the depth of this round of shuffling, the market share of the head companies is still expanding. From the battery network statistics of 2018 investment expansion, mergers and acquisitions, start-up and production events can also be seen, the oligarchs are constantly upgrading.
It is worth noting that in the new round of deep reshuffle, the “oligarchic warfare” in the battery manufacturing market is also forming. For most SMEs, the chances of “weak and weak” may be lost, but they are directly out. . Taking power batteries as an example, there have been fewer than one power battery companies in the reshuffle after the subsidies have subsided in 2016-2017. Some experts predict that 2019 subsidy policy adjustments and changes in power battery tariffs, by 2020, there will be only 20-30 power battery companies, more than 80% of companies will be eliminated.
So, how do small and medium-sized enterprises in the new energy battery industry survive in the cracks?
Here is a collection of interesting data. Hermann Simon, the father of invisible champions and a well-known German management professor, said that over the past two decades, he has collected data on 2,734 invisible champion companies around the world. He found that Germany has 1,307 invisible champions and is a country with a large number of Zui. There are 366 in the United States, 220 in Japan, and only 68 in China.
“Invisible Champion” is a small and medium-sized enterprise that has a leading position in an industry in the international or domestic market and has the vast majority of the industry, but is not as well known to the public as large-scale companies.
I believe that this data, at least in the manufacturing of a big country, China, is underestimated. Because China's manufacturing industry is growing faster than international imagination, many international people do not know enough about China. The perception of the Chinese market has remained a few years ago, even decades ago. However, this data also reminds us that while building a unicorn company, the cultivation of “specialized special new”, “invisible champion” and “Gazelle enterprise” and “shark seedling” enterprises needs to be accelerated. It is the opportunity for SMEs to survive: smashing large sums of money, building high walls, and accumulating grain, improving operational efficiency, becoming more sophisticated, and engaging in dislocation competition with leading enterprises.
In addition, a total of 105 A-share companies were listed in 2018, a decrease of 76% from the previous year. In 2019, the science and technology board and the trial registration system are expected to land, and the second echelon power battery companies will expand their channels in the capital market.
Third, the battle for resources, long-term good
Since 2018, although the prices of cobalt and lithium resources have been greatly reduced, in the long-term and huge market demand of new energy vehicles and energy storage, the game of mineral resources is still going from positive electrode materials companies to car companies and battery companies. Upgrade: German BMW and Volkswagen are negotiating with mining companies to ensure long-term supply; Toyota and Panasonic also announced the use of cobalt for vehicle batteries such as pure electric vehicles to discuss matters including development; Ningde Times Holdings Canada a lithium mine project; BYD company lays out lithium resource development in Chile...
Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, said that with the development of China's new energy automobile industry, the cost performance of electric vehicles will exceed that of traditional fuel vehicles by 2025. By 2030, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed 15 million.
Under this expectation, in order to ensure sufficient raw materials, resource disputes, long-term improvement.
In terms of lithium resources, Zhang Jiangfeng, secretary general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch, revealed at the ABEC 2018 forum that the world's major lithium producers include China, Chile, Argentina, the United States, Australia, Russia, etc. In recent years, global lithium salt production has increased. Mainly from China, and the world's major lithium producers have capacity expansion plans, the lithium salt processing capacity will exceed 800,000 tons in 2020. Chinese companies are accelerating the acquisition of lithium resources worldwide. Lithium salt production and lithium battery production have already won several lithium resources and minerals.
In terms of cobalt resources, Chinese companies have already taken the lead. According to the Economic Observer, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, located in central Africa, is the world's largest cobalt producer, and about 54% of the world's cobalt (about 66,000 tons) is sourced. According to statistics from British metal supplier Darton Commodities, 94% of the cobalt mines handled by Chinese companies are from the Congo. Some analysts estimate that most of the 30,000 to 40,000 tons of cobalt produced in the Congo are from free-skilled miners, as well as Chinese-funded enterprises such as Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group Co., Ltd. and Huayou Cobalt. Chinese intermediaries have mastered the supply of most free miners, in other words, China has dominated the Congo cobalt mine export network.
In terms of nickel resources, on January 11, GEM and CATL jointly established the first overseas 50,000-ton battery-grade nickel chemical project in Indonesia. The project was held by the Qingshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., which has the resources to master the power battery market. Circulation (a subsidiary of Ningde Era) and GEM-US joint investment in the construction of ternary materials manufacturing technology, the implementation of the upstream nickel resource core, mid-end material manufacturing and the downstream power battery market, will effectively open up the "red clay nickel mine - ternary battery Raw materials - ternary power battery" Nickel resources new energy materials industry chain industrial system.
This project, to a certain extent, reflects that the battle for resources is developing towards the trend of upstream and downstream integration cooperation.
The non-renewable and scarce nature of mineral resources determines that for a long time to come, the battle for resources will continue, and the control of resources will become the strategic layout and investment focus of domestic and foreign giants.
Fourth, the retreat of the smoke is gradually gone, the market competition is open
In 2019, the new energy subsidy new policy has not yet been finalized, but the sharp decline has been set. The relevant state departments have also clarified the “regression, adjustment, and exit” mechanism of the subsidy policy, and plans to completely cancel the subsidies for new energy vehicles by 2020.
In 2019, the retreat of smoke has gradually gone, and market competition has begun. The essence of returning to the product is the key. Consumer acceptance of new energy vehicle products has been greatly improved, but the number of new energy vehicles is still very low. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, in 2018, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 1.27 million and 1.256 million, respectively, up 59.9% and 61.7%. In terms of the quantity of possession, the new data of Zui of the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security shows that in 2018, the number of new energy vehicles in the country was 2.61 million, accounting for 1.09% of the total number of cars.
To improve the initiative and enthusiasm of consumers to buy and use new energy vehicles, product cost performance and safety are key indicators.
In terms of price, at present, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate, power electrolyte, battery grade lithium carbonate, dry and wet diaphragm, lithium iron phosphate in cathode materials, 523, 622 and other products have reached the stage bottom, and the price reduction space is not Large, the overall price of power batteries has stabilized. At present, the above products have been subsidized by the state's financial subsidies mainly relying on the innovation, technology, patents and other subsidies of the technology, rather than the financial subsidies of new energy vehicles, the impact of retreating is not great! In 2019, foreign-funded auto companies ran around, high-quality products and competitive models were launched this year, and the price reduction of domestic electric vehicles was opened, which will greatly benefit the promotion and application of new energy auto products!
In terms of safety, public data shows that from January 2016 to December 2018, there were 59 fire accidents involving new energy vehicles in China. Among them, new energy passenger vehicles caught 33 fires; new energy commercial vehicles caught 26 fires. The main cause of electric vehicle fire is collision, spontaneous combustion and soaking.
There is also a set of data showing that due to frequent exposure to fire accidents, the State Administration of Markets has initiated a defect investigation for new energy vehicles. In 2018, a number of companies have implemented a total of 10 recalls involving 133,800 new energy vehicles. Among them, the investigation affected the recall of 121,400 units, accounting for 91% of the total new energy recall in 2018. The problems involved in recalling vehicles include power batteries, airbags, brakes, and electrical equipment.
In the development of the new energy automobile industry in 2019, safety should be placed first. The good news is that at the policy level, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries attach great importance to the safety of new energy vehicles, and carry out a number of tasks such as organizing enterprises to carry out safety hazard investigations and extensively conducting production supervision and supervision; in terms of enterprises, China Automotive Engineering Research According to the test data of the company, the majority of new energy vehicles in the design and development of new energy vehicles use enterprise safety standards higher than the national standards, and more than 90% of the models can pass the test. In terms of testing of power batteries and key components, through the test results of more than 80% of domestic battery brands carried out in 2018, the passing rate of individual products is over 95%, and the key components with battery as the core have better performance. Safety and reliability.
5. The charging pile will be upgraded in the direction of the charging network to open a new round of “staking the horse”
In 2014, the state began to encourage social capital to invest in charging facilities. In October 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Energy Bureau and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued the “Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)”. According to the expectation of the competent authorities, in 2020, the number of electric vehicles in China will reach 5 million. According to the idea of ??“appropriate advancement” and “an electric vehicle with a charging pile”, it is necessary to build more than 12,000 centralized charging and replacement stations and more than 4.8 million decentralized charging piles within five years. With the sharp increase in the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles, in the case that the profit model is not clear, the capital is piled up in large quantities, and the piles of the piles are mutually restrained, each of them is fighting, and the prices are not the same.
Under the "savage growth", in 2018, like the shared car, in the state of losing money in successive years, the charging pile enterprises experienced the "investment tide", "delisting tide" and "closing tide".
After the fierce market slaughter, the charging pile industry also opened the era of oligarchy competition.
According to data released by the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, in the whole year of 2018, charging infrastructure increased by 331,000 units, an increase of 36.8% compared with 242,000 units in 2017, and new energy incremental vehicle piles. More than 3:1 (90,800 pure electric vehicles sold in 2018), public charging infrastructure is increasing steadily